HARDWICK – A mix of showers and thunderstorms intertwined with breaks of sunshine balanced out the weather between Wednesday and the weekend. The influence of heat and humidity kept the atmosphere unstable, leading to the frequent appearance of precipitation, occasionally enhanced by the passage of a front.
Adult swim program students kick across Caspian Lake during their class on Thursday, August 1. Their teacher Cy, learned to swim in Derby and was on an informal area swim team at the St. Johnsbury Academy before becoming a swim instructor and joining Teach American to Swim who organized these classes.
No record-breaking heat was found with this cycle. Even though a risk of flash flooding did come up two times during the week, the scattered and intermittent nature of the rain limited overall impacts to our region when compared to previous events. Parts of Cabot saw between 4 and 5 inches of total rain since the morning of July 31, while the remainder of western Caledonia, southern Orleans, northern Washington and eastern Lamoille Counties reported between one and two inches of rain.
Still, our localities are running well-above normal for rainfall amounts as we close out July. Totals for the month, according to CoCoRaHS and COOP observers, range from 6.48 inches in Craftsbury to 11.29 inches in Cabot. St. Johnsbury, which saw record-breaking rainfall amounts in a 24-hour period early last week, reported just shy of 18 inches of for the month.
We get a couple days of cooler and refreshing conditions, as high pressure to our north suppresses the rain southward from a system traveling through the Ohio Valley. That high slides north and east by Friday and all eyes turn to what will happen with the rain associated with tropical cyclone Debby. The forecast track takes Debby into the Central Appalachians before cutting the system out to the New England Coast. The interaction with an approaching system from the west, however, means that moisture from the core of the storm is likely to get pulled north and west, meaning we will once again have to consider the impacts of heavy rain across northern Vermont. Unlike the last few systems which featured scattered thunderstorms with torrential downpours, this appears to be a widespread rain event with embedded thunderstorms creating isolated higher rainfall totals.
Many variables are at play here, but general thinking is at least two to three inches of rain may fall between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. There are some places where heavier bands may focus, thus leading to some challenges predicting higher rainfall amounts and how severe any flooding will be. These details will come into focus in the next day or so. There is a good chance of minor river flooding, with a lesser, yet sizable chance, of moderate to major river flooding. Isolated flash flooding is also possible in areas where torrential downpours occur within the steady bands of rain.
That activity moves east on Sunday, but a lingering trough leaves chances of scattered showers. Here are the forecast details:
Caspian Lake’s adult swim program students take to the water with their teacher Cy from Teach America To Swim, Thursday, August on only their second class of the week after being rained out on Tuesday and Wednesday, Skye Almy said she had never learned to swim, but loves the water and, at 31 had begun taking better care of herself, so thought learning to swim would fit in well with being more active.
Wednesday: Sunny. High: 75. Low: 49.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High: 77. Low: 53.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Rain. More humid. High: 74. Low: 56.
Saturday: Cloudy. Rain. High: 75. Low: 55.Sunday: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers. High: 73. Low: 54.
Tyler is our weather reporter and a community journalist. He works as a nurse and EMT, volunteers with Hardwick Rescue and helps to train new EMTs.
