Temperatures turned quite cold over the previous forecast period, with some parts of our area seeing lows in the low to- mid-teens as we wrapped up the work week. Little more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain fell during that time. That did not stop numerous intervals of cloudiness from persisting.
photo by Vanessa Fournier
A brief ridge today will bring some breaks in the clouds and milder temperatures, although that is expected to be short-lived.
A sharp trough located over the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes Region will take up the duration of the forecast period. It will funnel multiple vorticities into southern New England, bringing a heavy round of precipitation Thursday night into Friday. As the first low transfers energy to another offshore system Friday afternoon, precipitation will become lighter with intermittent heavier episodes, before tapering off to scattered showers throughout the weekend.
The description of how those events will play out is intentionally ambiguous. The colder air has backed off earlier this week, leaving little in the way of antecedent below-freezing temperatures to support snow consistently to the ground level at the height of this storm. However, modeling is coming into better consensus that temperatures aloft at 3 to 5,000 feet might drop below freezing as the first area of low pressure weakens and pulls cold air in from the northwest. All areas are expected to be near freezing as we move into the weekend, especially Sunday, leading to everyone receiving the chance for some scattered snow showers.
Climatologically, most storms this time of year are very elevation-dependent and that has substantial impacts on snow accumulations. Higher-resolution modeling will not be in until tomorrow, which will provide further forecasting ability. For now, expect a soaking cold rain Thursday night into Friday. Rain may change to snow above 2,500 feet Friday afternoon and evening, with minimal accumulation, if any, expected in those areas around 2,500 feet. Snow level drops to about 1,500 feet on Saturday, before everyone sees a chance of snow showers on Sunday. It will also be quite breezy on Sunday, total accumulations are expected to be as follows by the end of Sunday:
Below 1,000 feet: Dusting to an inch
1,000-2,000 feet: 1 to 3 inches
2,000-2,500 feet (local elevation max): 2 to 4 inches
Here’s the rest of the forecast:
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High: 49. Low: 33.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Rain developing by afternoon. High: 42. Low: 35.
Friday: Cloudy. Rain, tapering to showers by afternoon. Snow showers mixing in above 2,000 feet at times. High: 40. Low: 32.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, mixing with snow showers above 1,500 feet. High: 36. Low: 31.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers, with light accumulations. Breezy. High: 34. Low: 29.
Tyler is our weather reporter and a community journalist. He works as a nurse and EMT, volunteers with Hardwick Rescue and helps to train new EMTs.
