EAST HARDWICK – Roller coaster temperatures prevailed this past week, with highs soaring into the 40s for multiple days in the forecast period, ending Sunday night with low temperatures in the teens below zero. It was 50F in Morrisville on Tuesday, February 25, then -12F by the morning of Monday, March 2. Two clippers arrived a little earlier than expected and brought a mix of rain and snow each time with some light accumulations.
photo by Renaud Demers
As of yesterday morning, snowpack depths vary a little, with most elevations below 2,000 feet reporting just under two feet of snow. Some of our outliers include North Greensboro, where as much as three feet remains on the ground. This station is just above 2,000 feet.
The National Weather Service estimates six to nine inches of a liquid equivalent remains in this snowpack. This becomes important in relation to flood risk as we immediately start the forecast period with an impressive thaw and some rain. A low-pressure system is cutting southwest to northeast through the Ohio and St. Lawrence River Valleys, leaving us in the breezy warm sector of the storm. Precipitation may start out as an episode of light freezing rain this morning prior to the warming. Light rain is then expected throughout the day, with a few heavier downpours. There might even be a rumble of thunder during the overnight. Some rain and snow showers linger into Thursday before the storm system pulls into the Canadian Maritimes, leaving cooler conditions and some stronger winds Thursday night into Friday.
Back to the flooding for a minute, our overall risk is low compared to a summer flash flooding event. We’re expecting about two-thirds of an inch of rain with this storm and just enough runoff to cause river rises, but most will remain within-bank. It will be worth watching for possible ice-jam flooding in the usual spots, like Wolcott Street and low-lying areas of Route 16. These areas are historically susceptible to seasonal ice jam issues. Our snow pack is dense enough that this likely wouldn’t appear as an issue until late Wednesday-early Thursday. River rises of a couple of feet may be enough to free up some of the thick ice that covers the Lamoille River that will lead to some shifting of the river ice. This is, of course, a very challenging event to forecast with some certainty. If you live in an area prone to ice jam flooding, be prepared to evacuate should river rises occur and seek alternate routes if traveling. Any threat of ice jam flooding ends Thursday evening.
The rest of the forecast can be summarized by slightly below-normal temperatures, with reinforcement to the cold air with a weakening front arriving by Saturday morning. Conditions will be partly-to-mostly cloudy with just a chance of a passing snow shower. Our clocks move ahead one hour on Sunday morning, yet another sign that spring is approaching. Here are the forecast details:
Wednesday: Cloudy. A slight chance of freezing rain in the morning. Rain. High: 48. Low: 44.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon. Perhaps an inch of accumulation. Breezy with gusts up to 45 mph from the northwest. High: 44 and falling by afternoon. Low: 15.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High: 28. Low: 18.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated snow showers in the morning. High: 25. Low: 9.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. High: 21. Low: 7.
Tyler is our weather reporter and a community journalist. He works as a nurse and EMT, volunteers with Hardwick Rescue and helps to train new EMTs.
