VERMONT – Canadian tourism and spending in Vermont has fallen significantly since January, following the February announcement that the U.S, would impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports, except oil and energy, which were to be taxed at 10%. At roughly the same time President Trump began to publicly suggest the idea of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state in social media posts and interviews.
In Greensboro, Elsa Schultz, Highland Lodge’s general manager, said business from Canadian customers is down significantly. “Many Canadians book a year in advance to reserve the lodge’s cabins, but are now calling to cancel.
She said “some have said they are happy with the lodge, but will not return until Donald Trump is no longer President.”
Though the tariffs didn’t begin until March 4, a steep decline in February by Canadians reporting being likely, very likely or planning a trip to visit the U.S. in the next 12 months set a level that continued into September, the last month for which Vermont reported data.
The number of Canadian travelers and their spending are both down too, reflecting those intentions.
September data showed Canadian’s intention to travel to the U.S. in the next year was just 13.4%, slightly more than half of the 25.2% during the same month in 2024, reported the Vermont Agency for Commerce and Community Development (ACCD) based on data from Travel Market Insights, Inc.
Schultz reported Highland Lodge customers have reported difficulties, with hassles and seemingly needless searches creating significant delays that have caused some to miss their flights from Montreal airports.
The decline in Canadian travel can be seen in data from Statistics Canada that tracks Canadians returning home by automobile. Through October, 31% fewer Canadians have returned to Canada in automobiles than last year.
U.S. data tracks travelers of all nationalities entering Vermont. Visits in personal vehicles, as pedestrians and in trains are down 30.9% through September this year compared to the same period in 2024, according to federal data reported by ACCD.
October trips are down slightly less, at 30.5%, both closely mirroring the data on all visitors entering the U.S, according to data provided by ACCD.
Jessie Upson at the Craftsbury Farmhouse reports business there is down too, but only “more like a 10-15% decrease” and they “have noticed less Canadian tourists.”
A December ACCD announcement noted that, in 2024 data for all travelers, “both visitation and spending numbers statewide showed a modest increase from 2023.”
Any drop in Canadian travel to the U.S. will have a greater impact on Vermont, where visitor spending represented 9% of Vermont’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is three times higher than the national state average of 3% seen in 2023 data, according to the report.
The report found the visitor economy directly supports 10% of Vermont’s workforce compared to the national average of 4.6%, with a decrease in travel impacting 31,780 Vermont jobs.
Sue Holmes, at Kimball House Bed and Breakfast in Hardwick said, “I know for sure I have had only one Canadian customer so far in 2025.
“Before that I don’t have a number count, but I’ve generally had many Canadian visitors the last couple of years, and many of them for the Lamoille [Valley] Rail Trail.
“I would estimate that in the past probably 20 to 25% of my clients were from Canada,” she said. “But almost nobody now.”
The decline in Canadian travel is reflected in spending data, which shows an even sharper decline. Credit card spending in Vermont by Canadians was down by more than half in September, though Canadian travelers are down by less than a third, suggesting Canadians are spending less during their trips to the U.S. than they did a year ago.
Vermont Tourism reports credit card spending by Canadians continues to show significant decreases compared to last year, according to the latest September data from Visa Destination Insights provided by ACCD.
This September, Canadian credit card spending was down 55% compared to the same month last year, with year-to-date spending down 49%.
Upson reported, “We are getting snowmobilers here this winter to help with our winter season and have created a trail to connect to VAST for our bistro and farmhouse guests.”
Paul Fixx is editor of The Hardwick Gazette and lives in Hardwick.
