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Scattered Showers, Thunderstorms Followed by Seasonable

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photo by Vanessa Fournier
Greensboro Village is seen from Young Road recently during a bright, sunny afternoon.

HARDWICK – After a wet start to the last forecast period, conditions slowly dried out as temperatures moderated into the 70s. By Sunday, many areas were reporting highs reaching the mid-70s, although geographically a significant spread existed from the upper 60s in the rural portions of Essex County, to the low 80s in the Champlain Valley. Everyone has started to experience a more significant moderation in the past two days, as highs reached the 80s region wide.

Precipitation totals for the previous forecast period were about half an inch, with most of that precipitation falling Wednesday night into Thursday as a stationary front and its associated low-pressure system passed bands of heavy showers from south to north.

We also began to see precipitation form in a bit of a diurnal pattern as the week progressed, meaning that, as heating occurred during the day under the influence of strong sunshine, scattered showers would appear.

We start off this week’s forecast with a similar theme, as we are under the influence of southerly air and mostly sunny conditions. Indeed, we expect the forecast highs for today to reach the upper 80s, which will put some amount of strain on people who are not yet acclimated to the heat.

We may come close to breaking record highs today. Montpelier’s record high of 90° was set back in 1994.

There will be enough instability developing this afternoon to set off some scattered showers and thunderstorms, with frequent lightning likely and some brief heavy downpours. The threat of severe thunderstorms seems minimal due to a lack of an organized mechanism to support thunderstorm updrafts.

Expect the heat to dissipate starting on Thursday as a cold front approaches the region mid-morning. The timing is such that we may see a few showers and thunderstorms yet again, but with the event unfolding earlier in the day, again that will likely decrease the overall severity of the thunderstorms, although a strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out. Behind the front, a little bit of sunshine can be expected to close out Thursday. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s just prior to the frontal passage.

Beyond Thursday, a return to more seasonable temperatures is expected. Mostly sunny skies are forecast for Friday, before the progression of a low pressure through the Great Lakes swings its associated frontal system through New England late Saturday into Sunday. Here are those forecast details:

Wednesday:  Mostly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late afternoon. Additional showers expected overnight, with a chance of a thunderstorm. High: 89. Low: 62.

Thursday:  Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely midday, with some afternoon clearing. High: 78. Low: 49.

Friday:  Mostly sunny. High: 74. Low: 51.

Saturday:  Partly cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening. High: 75. Low: 55.

Sunday:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers. High: 73. Low: 53.

Tyler is weather reporter and a community journalist. He works as a nurse and EMT, volunteers with Hardwick Resdue and helps to train new EMTs

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