HARDWICK – What a week of challenges when it came to last week’s forecast! The big confounder was the eventual track of the remnants of tropical cyclone Debby, which ultimately made the difference in our overall risk for river and flash flooding. Our initial forecast had Debby’s center just south and east of us, with a slower track interacting with a frontal feature to our west. Instead, a leftward shift in the track left us in the warm sector with most of our rain coming steadily late Thursday night and Friday, followed by scattered tropical downpours.
Of course, forecasting tropical systems is a beast of its own, with the National Hurricane Center reporting that a storm’s center stays within the 253-statute mile error track on day five about 2/3 of the time.
Ultimately, most area rain gauges still received the expected two to three inches. Our minimum and maximum outliers were Woodbury, receiving 1.85 inches, and Cabot, which reported 2.72 inches. Winds also picked up, causing scattered tree damage and power outages. Winds on some of the exposed south-facing slopes likely exceeded 50 mph. No major river flooding was reported, nor did any catastrophic flash flooding arise locally. The most significant damage was reported in northern New York
On to some present happenings: We have an interesting stack of upper-level systems that are creating a bit of a traffic jam in the eastern United States. A low centered over the Canadian Maritimes will drop a cold front westward into our region Wednesday with just enough of a lifting mechanism to set off some showers and thunderstorms near the mountains in the afternoon. They populate with the daytime warmth and quickly disappear by the evening. Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday, with another disturbance from the same low. Some small hail and heavy downpours are possible both days, along with lightning.
Ridging occurs on Friday, clearing out the showers and giving us the best sunshine this week. Highs will be in the upper 70s, preceded by comfortable warm morning lows in the mid-50s. Things become tricky again by the weekend as the forecast is complicated by the aforementioned traffic jam. A deep trough over the Great Lakes brings a frontal system slowly across our region during the weekend, with the potential for some more heavy rain and thunderstorms with strong winds and embedded downpours. These may be enhanced by the passage of Hurricane Ernesto well off the east coast. It looks like a widespread one to two inches of rain with locally higher amounts, mainly on Sunday. Again flash flooding should be isolated, but it never hurts to be prepared for all modes of severe weather. In fact, it seems to be a standard practice every week this year. Now on to the forecast:
The sky from Spring Street on August 9 at 8:15 p.m., after heavy winds and rain arrived in Hardwick and surrounding towns from the remnants of Tropical Storm Debby.
Wednesday– Mostly sunny in the morning. Increasing clouds by the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some producing brief heavy rain and small hail. High: 78. Low: 56.
Thursday– Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some producing brief heavy rain and small hail. High: 77. Low: 58.
Friday– Mostly sunny. High: 79. Low: 59.
Saturday– Increasing clouds. Rain, scattered throughout the day. High: 77. Low: 61.
Sunday– Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe with high winds and heavy rain. High: 78. Low
Tyler is our weather reporter and a community journalist. He works as a nurse and EMT, volunteers with Hardwick Rescue and helps to train new EMTs.
