EAST HARDWICK – Persistent rain the past several days didn’t cause a washout, as intervals of sunshine peeked through broken cloud cover intermittently this weekend. Highs have generally been in the 50s to 60s, which is normal for this time of year. A healthy three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain fell in the last week, with three-to-four-inch amounts about 100 miles south. This is thanks in part to a cutoff upper-level low, which has caused a surface low-pressure system to stall over the lower Ohio River Valley, with a stationary front draped over southern Vermont and New Hampshire.
The upper low is part of an omega block, which is where upper-level features line up west-to-east in a low-high-low fashion. It causes systems to get stuck for a while. As you can imagine, that has implications on the forecast for the upcoming period: no crazy heat waves and no likelihood of wall-to-wall sunshine. The forecast looks largely rainy and cool.
It’s not all bad news, though. There will be some breaks of sun, especially Friday and Mother’s Day, and flow will become more progressive as we wrap up the weekend, so there is some hope of improving weather by early next week, with long-term predictions offering a generally warmer and drier outlook. In the meantime, one feature we’re watching closely is the positioning of the upper-level low by Friday evening and Saturday morning, as it appears a coastal system may develop east of the upper-level feature.
Model guidance is having a bit of trouble resolving this feature currently, but it appears we will at least see a moderate rain through Saturday afternoon, with lingering rain showers into Sunday as a cold front crosses from west to east and gives us our first hint of true clearing by sunset Sunday. Here’s the best guess as to how this will all pan out:
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, with additional breaks of sunshine in the afternoon. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High: 65. Low: 43. South wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. High: 50. Low: 37. Northwest wind around 5 mph.
Friday: Mostly cloudy, becoming partly sunny by afternoon. Scattered showers, turning to periods of rain by evening. High: 53. Low: 42. Light and variable winds.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Rain. High: 59. Low: 43. Variable winds around 5 mph.
Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a chance of rain showers. High: 58. Low: 37. South winds around 5 mph, becoming northwest, and increasing to 10 to 15 mph.
Tyler is our weather reporter and a community journalist. He works as a nurse and EMT, volunteers with Hardwick Rescue and helps to train new EMTs.
